Did The Draft Help The Vikings?
Here are Minnesota's 2007 team rankings from Football Outsiders and NFL.com:
| Football Outsiders | NFL.com | |
| Passing Offense | 19th | 28th |
| Rushing Offense | 4th | 1st |
| Passing Defense | 23rd | 32nd |
| Rushing Defense | 2nd | 1st |
They are clearly an elite team at running the ball and stopping the run, but need to improve their pass offense and pass defense.
So here's who they selected in the first four rounds of the draft:
| 2nd Round (43) | FS Tyrell Johnson |
They traded three picks in the first three rounds for DE Jared Allen, so he's got to be mentioned. Usually a team with few draft choices has a low chance so success because if the top guy doesn't work out then the draft overall might be a failure. Clearly they are counting on Allen to succeed otherwise it's a bad draft, but he isn't like some unknown rookie who might not succeed in the NFL. Allen's one of the best pass rushers/defensive ends in the NFL already.
Allen will really change Minnesota's defense next season. Johnson will help a poor pass defense too, but opponents will have double team Allen a lot. Probably just help from the tight end, but then he'll be unavailable as a receiver. It should help reduce the number of double teams faced by Pro Bowl DT Kevin Williams too. Minnesota had a lot of sacks as a team, 38, which tied for 8th best and was more then the Packers 36 sacks, but a lot of them came from linebackers who had to blitz to provide pressure instead of dropping back in coverage. If Minnesota doesn't need to blitz as much with Allen's presence on the line, then that literally provides more bodies back in coverage which again should help the pass defense.
The pass offense received little attention in the draft. WR Bernard Berrian was signed as a free agent so they had taken some steps to improve the pass offense, but Chicago's pass offense was one of the worst in the NFL last season, so he's not going to help single handedly. USC QB John David Booty was drafted in the 5th round, but waiting that late in the draft to find a QB is not really trying. It's a longshot that Booty will significantly help.
Overall this was a good draft for Minnesota since Allen is a proven elite player, but as a Packer fan this draft isn't going to make a difference next season. The Packers played Kansas City last season, and LT Chad Clifton played very well against Allen, and he wasn't a major factor in the game. Figuring out how to stop RB Adrian Peterson will still be the main concern when both teams face each other twice next season.
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Did The Draft Help The Lions?
Here are Detroit's 2007 rankings from Football Outsiders and NFL.com :
| Football Outsiders | NFL.com | |
| Passing Offense | 18th | 9th |
| Rushing Offense | 20th | 31st |
| Passing Defense | 30th | 31st |
| Rushing Defense | 27th | 23rd |
What really stood out was that although former offensive coordinator Mike Martz avoided running plays with a passion last season, Detroit was just below average at running the football. They were a better passing team, but only slightly. The NFL official stats are weighed down by Detroit's severe lack of running plays overall. While the offense was almost average, anyway you look at the defense, it was one of the worst in the NFL.
Again I'm only looking at the first four rounds (first three with Detroit since they had no 4th round pick) because everyone after that is a longshot.
| 1st Round (17) | RT Gosder Cherlius |
| 2nd Round (45) | LB Jordon Dizon |
| 3rd Round (64) | RB Kevin Smith |
| 3rd Round (87) | DT Andre Fluellen |
| 3rd Round (92) | LB Cliff Avril |
They needed a lot of help on defense, and used 3 of their top 5 picks for defenders, but spent their top pick on an offensive player. Two of those picks were on linebackers, instead of maybe spreading it around and using one of those picks for the secondary, which would have been better. This draft was rich in cornerbacks and Detroit didn't select a single one, but the NFC North is an odd division wherein arguably the best QB has never started a single NFL game, so this might not hurt them.
Selecting RT Gosder Cherlius was seen by many as an odd move, but they lost RT Damian Woody in free agency, and whoever was his awful backup that was absolutely destroyed by DE Aaron Kampman last Thanksgiving has no business playing in the NFL. This was a black hole on their offensive line, and at least they've addressed it. Plus there's no reason Cherlius shouldn't be a solid right tackle. They absolutely had to have a tackle with one of their top picks.
I'm not pretending to be a scout, but LB Jordon Dizon's height at 6'0" really stands out. No matter what scheme, it seems universal that all teams like tall linebackers. Seeing a 6'0" linebacker is like seeing a 6'0" quarterback. You wonder if he's going to be able to see over the line of scrimmage.
They also selected LB Cliff Avril in the 3rd round. No matter if these guys are going to make it or not, Detroit had to add some bodies at linebacker. Former starter LB Boss Bailey is now in Denver, and former Packer LB Paris Lenon has been starting way too much for Detroit.
RB Kevin Smith enters the league with a lot of carries on his body, more than your typical rookie, so he's likely to have a short shelf life, and his time is now. Luckily for Smith, Detroit has a big hole since their two top running backs from last season, RB T.J. Duckett and RB Kevin Jones, are gone, so they need Smith to produce now. They had to have another running back to compete for the starting job.
They also selected DT Andre Fluellen in the 3rd round, and they badly needed another body in the middle of the line after the trade of DT Shaun Rogers to Cleveland.
Overall this was a good draft for Detroit, although it was reactionary. They had to find replacements for departed veterans at running back, right tackle, defensive tackle, and linebacker, and those are the positions where they spent their early draft choices. They could still stand to improve elsewhere on an offensive line that gave up a ton of sacks and improve their pass rush, but they weren't going to fix all their problems in one draft. It's easy to pick on Matt Millen and his love of wide receivers, but he did what he had to do in 2008.
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Legends Think Alike
Superstar LPGA golfer Annika Sorenstam announced that she will retire at the end of the current LPGA season. Normally this blog isn't discussing womens golf, but she mentioned QB Brett Favre's recent retirement. She's feeling the same as him; the body's able but the mind's no longer willing:
"I was watching Brett Favre when he announced his retirement. He said he loved the competition. He was just tired of the daily grind - and I feel the same way," Sorenstam said.
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Did The Draft Help The Bears?
Last week I looked at whether the Packers drafted players to help in areas where they struggled last season, and this week I'm looking around the NFC North. This has nothing to do whether the team drafted the right player because I'm no scout and can't tell a bust from a future MVP. But did Chicago add players at positions where the team really needed some help?
Here are their 2007 team rankings from NFL.com and Football Outsiders:
| Football Outsiders | NFL.com | |
| Passing Offense | 30th | 15th |
| Running Offense | 32nd | 30th |
| Passing Defense | 12th | 27th |
| Rushing Defense | 4th | 24th |
The disconnect between the official NFL ranks and the Football Outsiders ranks is pretty dramatic. It's hard to imagine Chicago's great 2006 defense falling to somewhere between 24th and 27th overall, so it was likely that the Bears awful offense just gave opponents too many opportunities to gain yards against a great defense.
It's not an ideal situation to go into next season with QBs Rex Grossman and Neck Beard, but GM Jerry Angelo said he didn't really like any of the QBs in this draft. He almost drafted a QB in the 4th round, which I assume was either QB Erik Ainge or QB Josh David Booty, who were both drafted in the 5th round. Neither one would have looked great in 2008 as the Bears' starting QB, but Angelo will look really bad if either of them turn into the next QB Derek Anderson. It won't help the pass offense that QB Brian Griese, who had the team's highest QB rating in 2007, and WR Bernard Berrian, their leading receiver, are both playing elsewhere in 2008.
The defense slipped in 2007, but injuries played a large part. Still they can't assume everyone will be healthy next season, and they had to find more depth for the secondary. They could use more depth at defensive tackle and linebacker to account for potential injuries. But overall the defense had to take a back seat to fixing one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
I'm only looking at the first four rounds because everyone after that is a longshot to make the team.
| 1st Round (14) | OT Chris Williams |
| 2nd Round (44) | RB Matt Forte |
| 3rd Round (70) | WR Earl Bennett |
| 3rd Round (90) | DT Marcus Harrison |
| 4th Round (120) |
S Craig Steltz |
Teams should be built from the inside-out, so if you don't like any QB with the 14th overall pick, take the best lineman and Chicago's offensive line probably needed more help than any other unit on the team. Selecting Forte was needed to help the worst run offense in the NFL, and it looks like a fantastic move after RB Cedric Benson's arrest. Bennett kept with the Vanderbilt theme (both Bennett and Williams played at Vandy) and wide receiver was another area that desperately needed help after the loss of Berrian and the release of WR Muhsin Muhammad.
After that they focused on defense. Adding a defensive tackle to a stout run defense seems like a luxury, but defensive tackle was a concern this time last year after the release of DT Tank Johnson. Then they added the safety they needed in the secondary.
Overall this was a really good draft for Chicago. They added three players from different positions to an offense that desperately needed help all over the roster. They even managed to add two more players for the defense. It helped them where they really needed it while still giving several positions on the roster an infusion of young talent. All these guys won't work out, no team will find a future starter with all of their top five draft selections, but, unfortunately, this draft has the potential of really helping them out as soon as next season.
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Waiving Koren Robinson
This is not a surprise, but the Packers released WR Koren Robinson on Friday. He was scheduled to attend the Packers' draft party and was replaced at the last minute by C Scott Wells, and then he was replaced on the depth chart by WR Jordy Nelson with the Packers' first pick in the draft.
Unfortunately for Robinson, he's just never lived up to his high top 10 draft status. The problems he's had with alcohol and suspensions aside, he's rarely been above average. His breakout season was 5 TD, 1,240 yards back in 2002, but according to Football Outsiders, Seattle threw a whopping 141 pass attempts his way for those TDs and yards. Based on their metric, he was barely above replacement level in his best season, and below it in every other season. He was even below replacement level in 2007 when the Packers pass offense was on fire and the only other wide receiver who struggled at all was rookie WR James Jones. He had a big year on kick returns in 2005 and it led to a Pro Bowl appearance while he was in Minnesota, but he didn't show any of that flash the last two seasons in Green Bay.
Releasing him now gives him a chance to catch on with another team, and his 2005 Pro Bowl appearance, along with his good behavior while with the Packers, will probably give him at least one more chance.
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Ron Wolf's Legacy
I was flipping through my old copy of The Packer Way and was reminded that Ron Wolf was the first GM for the Tampa Bay back in 1976 and 1977. He clashed with head coach John McKay which led to his firing before the 1978 season. He was replaced by John McKay's driver. Imagine how different it might have gone if Tampa Bay had kept Wolf?
When I left the Bucs in 1978, I figured I had botched my final shot at running a team. The next season, the Bucs made the NFC championship game. The franchise was only four years old; no team had ever reached the title contest faster. And they did it mostly with players I had obtained. So I knew my tenure in Tampa hadn't been a failure, even through it was perceived that way. I wondered if anyone would give me a chance to prove I could do better.
Although Tampa Bay advanced to the NFC championship game in 1979, they didn't win another playoff game until 1997. Wolf had as much to do with the only bright spot in the first 20 years of their franchise as anybody.
Wolf worked for the Raiders from 1966-1975, and again from 1978-1990. He spent the 1991 season with the Jets, then was the Packers' GM from 1992-2001. Obviously the Packers had an outstanding run during his tenure with the team, but Oakland too had some outstanding teams for a long period of time when he worked in their front office. Even the Jets had one of their rare playoff appearances in 1991, the one year he worked for them.
Even with the retirement of QB Brett Favre there are still three key members of the 2008 offense that were originally drafted by him; LT Chad Clifton, RT Mark Tauscher, and WR Donald Driver.
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Did The Draft Help The Packers?
Another way to look at the results of the recent NFL draft was whether GM Ted Thompson added players to areas where the Packers struggled in 2007. It was a great season, but some units have room for improvement. Here are the 2007 offensive and defensive ranks from Football Outsiders and NFL.com.
| Football Outsiders | NFL.com | |
| Passing Offense | 5th |
2nd |
| Rushing Offense | 9th | 21st |
| Passing Defense | 18th | 12th |
| Rushing Defense | 6th | 14th |
The biggest disconnect is the reality of the Packers run offense and defense to the official NFL rank.
Anyone who watched RB Ryan Grant destroy opposing run defenses in the second half of 2007 might realize the rankings by FO and the NFL depressed the true quality of the run offense. Also, only four teams ran the ball fewer times than the Packers.
Although officially the NFL says the Packers run defense was average. But opponents only gained 3.9 yards/carry, which was 10th best, and opponents only ran for a 1st down 77 times against the Packers, which was the 4th fewest allowed.
The pass offense looks strong, but everyone is quite aware of QB Brett Favre's retirement, and the Packers couldn't stand pat.
The area that obviously needed help was the pass defense, but remember that the pass rush is just as important as the pass coverage.
This is post is only considering players drafted in the first four rounds, plus it excludes 4th round pick OL Josh Sitton who was drafted at the end of the round and is unlikely to play in 2008 with so many guys currently ahead of him on the depth chart. Anyone drafted after that is a longshot to help in 2008, if they can even make the team.
| 2nd Round | WR Jordy Nelson |
| 2nd Round | QB Brett Brohm |
| 2nd Round | CB Patrick Lee |
| 3rd Round | TE Jermichael Finley |
| 4th Round | DE Jeremy Thompson |
Finley counts as an addition to the passing game since he's not a big guy and unlikely to make a big difference as a run blocker. So Finley, Nelson, and Brohm are players who help the strongest area of the team, the pass offense. Even with Favre's retirement, QB Aaron Rodgers shouldn't be a major step down, so in this regard GM Ted Thompson used three of his top four picks to bolster an area that was already the best on the team.
It doesn't look like anything was done to help the run offense, but Brohm arguably helps it as a good passing game should help the run offense. If you include the 2008 6th round pick traded for Grant last September, then it looks like the run offense was given a major boost by trading a very late round pick for one of the best young running backs in the NFL.
The run defense got a boost with the addition of DE Jeremy Thompson. It might seem like a stretch that a 4th round pick would make an immediate assist on defense, but Thompson was known for his solid run defense in college.
Thompson also helps the pass defense by helping to replace DT Corey Williams, who had 7 sacks in each of the last two seasons. Although Thompson wasn't as well known for his pass rush, he showed a lot of speed at the NFL combine, and the coaches must think he can become a quality pass rusher. Plus, GM Ted Thompson did something he had never done before, and traded up to draft him.
CB Patrick Lee wasn't going to the Packers in any mock draft I read, but his size and speed is a big shot-in-the-arm to a pass defense that began to unravel by the end of the season. He struggled to stay in the starting lineup at Auburn, but finished his college career with a strong senior season.
Looking at the draft from the perspective of drafting to improve the weakest area in 2007, the pass defense, the draft disappointed by only adding one player of the top 100 chosen (DE Jeremy Thompson was taken 102nd overall). If the pass defense continues to decline in 2008, and the run defense struggles, then we might look back on the 2008 draft and remember that the Packers didn't do much to help those two areas.
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You Can Take That Jersey Off Now
The end of another consecutive games/days streak as little David Witthoft takes off his Favre jersey for the first time since 2003. Every mother is probably worried that it hasn't been washed during the streak, and they'll be after his mom just like they went after the mom who let her 9 year old ride the NYC subway by himself.
There have been calls to get him a replica QB Aaron Rodgers jersey stat, but I think he's allowed to wear something else by now. Like an A.J. Hawk jersey. I think it's time to show the defense some love.
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Meet Brennen Carvalho
Undrafted free agent C Brennen Carvalho is an interesting prospect. He played at Division II Portland State last season under former NFL head coach Jerry Glanville, and his run-and-gun offensive coordinator Mouse Davis. He was an All American guard, but Glanville and Davis discussed during an interview that they moved him to center, where he again was an All American, due to his smart play and so he could make all the line calls.
Glanville also mentioned that Carvalho lost 15 pounds as he got ready for workouts with NFL teams, and he plays better at the lighter weight.
Davis also said that the main problem Carvalho will have in the NFL is that he's a little shorter than most NFL teams would prefer.
He does seem shorter than his listed 6'1" but he's a big guy and at least his listed weight of 294 lbs. He's almost the same size as starting C Scott Wells so Carvalho's lack of size shouldn't be a problem with the Packers. But Wells was originally a 7th round pick, and was even briefly released, so he had to prove himself to the team. Now Wells will never make a Pro Bowl, but he's a solid fixture in the center of the line and they clearly played poorly when Wells missed a couple of games during the middle of 2007.
Carvalho probably is a long shot to make the opening day roster, but he should have a chance on the practice squad. The only players listed at center on the roster are Carvalho, Wells, and Jason Spitz. With Carvalho's ability to play either guard or center, he would be a good reserve for the practice squad.
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Rookie Camp Is Over
Unfortunately it was closed to the public, and the media was only let for part of it, so it's hard to get any information about what happened. Maybe the most notable things were that tryout DT Fred Bledsoe signed a contract, and the rookie QBs Brian Brohm and Matt Flynn were given the playbook.
- GM Ted Thompson had rookie QB Matt Flynn rated much higher than the 7th round. But he also thought QB Ingel Martin was worth a 5th round pick two years ago. Flynn looked more comfortable than the average rookie, and playing alongside top QBs (such as last year's first overall pick QB Jamarcus Russell) and top coaches, Les Miles and Nick Saban, has rubbed off on him.
- Mike McCarthy thought the rookie QBs got off to a good start.
- 5th round pick T Breno Giacomini was mentioned in a couple articles, so he apparently made a good impression on the reporters.
- McCarthy liked Division III, UW-Whitewater RB Justin Beaver, but didn't guarantee him a roster spot either. Also, he praised 2nd round WR Jordy Nelson on his excellent route running, and his ability to react while the ball is in the air.
- 3rd round TE Jermichael Finley was even more athletic than McCarthy expected. However the two rookie offensive lineman Josh Sitton and Giacomini are not overly athletic but play with a good "disposition" according to McCarthy. Apparently that's his way of saying they've got a mean streak.
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